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In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, but a late and weak La Niña remains possible. In the Indian Ocean, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues, but has weakened from record July index values.
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the negative IOD will weaken during the southern hemisphere spring, and is likely to end in November. This means its influence on Australia’s spring rainfall may not be as strong as it has been during this winter, when wetter conditions prevailed in the east.
In the tropical Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures are cooler than average, though remain well short of La Niña levels. In the atmosphere, there has been little change in trade winds or cloudiness, indicating little or no coupling between the atmosphere and ocean. As a result, cool sub-surface temperatures have eased slowly towards normal. International climate models suggest neutral to weak La Niña levels for the remainder of the year. A La Niña WATCH remains in place.
Below is the POAMA outlook.
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Comments
I believe there are some studies linking polar ice cap melting (and its associated cascading consequences... rising columns of moisture and heat, temperature gradients, etc.) with Jet Stream disruption. (Which makes absolute gut level sense to me)
Sou,
Are you familiar with anything indicating some connection between ENSO behavior and mid latitude jet stream behavior?