March 21, 2017

The introduction:
It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming (b) slowdown or hiatus (a)(e), characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming (c), has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims (d).

Can someone help clarify something for me –
People/politicians/scientists spend all this time talking about climate response, when it seems to me, they are actually talking about temperature response.

As though that number tells us everything. 

What does that figure actually tell us about our Earth’s biosphere’s response,
or societal response?

What about other critically important parts of this equation?

What about extreme weather response to temperature?

How about societal responses (or lack thereof) to weather driven infrastructure destruction?

Seems to me in our collective obsession over achieving ultimate accuracy we’ve lost sight of what those number really for and are giving short shrift to the more critical matter of cascading consequences.

Climate scientists versus climate data
Posted on February 4, 2017
by John Bates
A look behind the curtain at NOAA’s climate data center.
https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/04/climate-scientists-versus-climate-data/

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/how-culture-clash-noaa-led-flap-over-high-profile-warming-pause-study

How a culture clash at NOAA led to a flap over a high-profile warming pause study

By Warren Cornwall, Paul VoosenFeb. 8, 2017 , 1:00 PM

A former scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Washington, D.C., made waves this past weekend when he alleged that climate scientist Thomas Karl, the former head of a major NOAA technical center, “failed to disclose critical information” to the agency, journal editors, and Congress about the data used in a controversial study published in Science in June 2015. Karl was the lead author of that paper, which concluded that global surface temperatures continued rising in recent years, contrary to earlier suggestions that there had been a “pause” in global warming.

John Bates, who retired from NOAA this past November, made the claims in a post on the prominent blog of Judith Curry, a climate researcher who recently retired from the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta and has walked the line between science and climate contrarians over the past decade. Bates’s complaints were also the centerpiece of a story published Sunday by David Rose of the United Kingdom’s The Mail on Sunday, a tabloid, which claimed that national leaders “were strongly influenced” by the “flawed NOAA study” as they finalized the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

…..

In the blog post, Bates says that his complaints provide evidence that Karl had his “thumb on the scale” in an effort to discredit claims of a warming pause, and his team rushed to publish the paper so it could influence national and international climate talks. But Bates does not directly challenge the conclusions of Karl's study, and he never formally raised his concerns through internal NOAA mechanisms.

Tuesday, in an interview with E&E News, Bates himself downplayed any suggestion of misconduct. “The issue here is not an issue of tampering with data, but rather really of timing of a release of a paper that had not properly disclosed everything it was,” he told reporter Scott Waldman. And Bates told Science Insider that he is wary of his critique becoming a talking point for those skeptical of human-caused climate change. But it was important for this conversation about data integrity to happen, he says. “That’s where I came down after a lot of soul searching. I knew people would misuse this. But you can't control other people,” Bates says.

Are Democrats Falling Into Trump’s Trap?

ON SATURDAY MORNING, the white stone buildings on UC Berkeley’s campus radiated with unfiltered sunshine. The sky was blue, the campanile was chiming. But instead of enjoying the beautiful day, 200 adults had willingly sardined themselves into a fluorescent-lit room in the bowels of Doe Library to rescue federal climate data.

Like similar groups across the country—in more than 20 cities—they believe that the Trump administration might want to disappear this data down a memory hole. So these hackers, scientists, and students are collecting it to save outside government servers.

But now they’re going even further. Groups like DataRefugeand the Environmental Data and Governance Initiative, which organized the Berkeley hackathon to collect data from NASA’s earth sciences programs and the Department of Energy, are doing more than archiving. Diehard coders are building robust systems to monitor ongoing changes to government websites. And they’re keeping track of what’s already been removed—because yes, the pruning has already begun.

Tag It, Bag It

Future Farming

Later that afternoon, two dozen or so of the most advanced software builders gathered around whiteboards, sketching out tools they’ll need. They worked out filters to separate mundane updates from major shake-ups, and explored blockchain-like systems to build auditable ledgers of alterations. Basically it’s an issue of what engineers call version control—how do you know if something has changed? How do you know if you have the latest? How do you keep track of the old stuff?

My latest post, that I think worth sharing.  I leave off the beginning though here is a link to the song in question, it really is a beautiful profound things.  

Eagles "Last Resort"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdx6oyBOVj0

If after reading the following anyone had anything to add or subtract or play with, please do.  

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The post itself starts with “The Last Resort” and focuses on the challenge of getting Merrick Garland his Supreme Court nomination vote on January 3rd {For info  http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2016/12/demand-jan3-vote-merrick-garland.html}

http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2016/12/trumps-theme-song-and-god.html
...We The People can not hope for President Obama and the cowering Democratic Senators to do this on their own!  We as American individuals need to make the personal effort to demand they stand united and insistent on voting Merrick Garland into the Supreme Court.

This is for keeps!  January 3rd is the last change to get a little check and balance back into our government >  Something the absolutist, faith-based crowd are loath to do since these people have actually convinced themselves, they are on God’s holy mission.  
Think about that.

Speaking of “God”

Realize and consider that these self-certain absolutist Republican emotional children don’t appreciate the profound difference between Personal Truths and Universal Truths.  They refuse to grapple with the spiritual reality that although we can know God in our hearts, we (that is petty self-serving humans) will never know more than a vague shadow play of the real God of Time and Creation, Life and Love.  The Bible even warns people that God is beyond human understanding, Philippians 4:7 but the children refuse to grow up and see.  1 Corinthians 13:11

What’s sad is that I know it’s not hard for an honest spiritual seeker to grasp that God is beyond petty self-serving human’s ability to comprehend, we can only know shadow plays and through those shadow plays better understand ourselves and our lives.  

When I was young I can remember that in America a person’s Faith was reflected in how they lived their life and how they interacted with others and their communities.  Heck it was my Southern Baptist grandma and her old Encyclopedia Britannica who taught me about dinosaurs, mastodons, evolution and helped spark my life long desire to learn about all aspects of Earth’s life story, then she’d say prayers with me at night.  She lived her faith in God, she didn’t have to beat other people over the head with it!  

Then came the 70s Jesus Freaks with their egomania and absolutism pretending that they had actually tapped into the real “God.”  All the while perverting Jesus’ Passion into something it wasn’t.  It’s ludicrous, but everyone let them get away with it and the brainwashing has been relentless ever since.  Now this Trump comes along and played that scared, desperate-for-power tribe, like a fiddle.  They are united and everyone’s future will be impacted mightily.

The thing that makes our future so frightening is that “Truth” and “Objective Facts” and “Constructive Learning” means nothing to these people - their mindscape sees nothing but their own self-interest, enemies and playing to win.  They believe that fabricating fiction to replace objective facts is their Free Speech Right - in other words, to them fraud in the name of their personal God is okay.  ... and the rest of us go along with their fantasy.  Why?

Mind you, no enlightened self-interest is to be found in this crowd.  They can’t fathom our planet Earth and it’s inhabitants as anything other than a bunch of commodities to be extracted and exploited as much as possible, as fast as possible and as cheaply as possible, no exceptions.  (I’ve often wondered where the hell was everyone running to in such a hurry.)

Not to mention their difficulties with accepting the multiculturalism they forced on themselves.  Plus their inability to grasp the simple facts of life and flow of years.  (You know what I mean, more people, less room, accommodations must be made - Wanting to return to an imaginary yesteryear is an insane option.  But that is Trump’s promise and their expectation.  What will they do when he can’t deliver?  What will they do when they learn they been played for fools?  Or will Trump’s relentless rallies, create something else and much uglier altogether?  Who will become the scapegoat for the failure to come?).

The general willful ignorance and arrogant disregard is appalling and all that stands between them and achieving their short-sighted dreams and We The People’s worst nightmares - is an overwhelmingly uninformed and apathetic public.  Who’s going to wake them up?  

1. Nominating science-deniers and corporations (or their proxies) to Cabinet positions (like in charge of the EPA)
2. Nominating an anti-education person to head up education (keep the plebs ignorant)
3. Approving the Keystone and Dakota oil pipelines
4. Silencing (not merely censoring) science and environmental organisations: National Parks, EPA, Department of Agriculture etc

My first reaction on hearing of Donald Trump's probably victory was an emotional jolt, accompanied by the physical sensation of nausea. This is despite the fact that I was partly prepared. I was at a meeting in a tiny town in rural New South Wales, with a number of other people from various walks of life.

Internet reception was patchy (very poor Optus coverage) and I had to take the laptop outside to learn what was happening. When I came back to the meeting and told everyone that Trump was the likely next US President, people were shocked and dismayed. There were comments about Nazi Germany, melting away of life savings, and concerns about how the Putin-Trump relationship would adversely affect global stability, particularly in regard to China. (Australia's security and place in the world is now under threat, and we will need to adapt and find new allies.)

Donald Trump Is the First Demagogue of the Anthropocene
He won’t be the last.
ROBINSON MEYER | OCT 19, 2016
http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/10/trump-the-first-demagogue-of-the-anthropocene/504134/

I write and report on climate change, not a pursuit that usually encourages optimism, but watching all this unfold with the atmosphere in mind has been particularly bleak. For the past few months in particular, I’ve been thinking: Wow, this is all happening way earlier than I thought it would.

Spend enough time with some of the worst-case climate scenarios, and you may start to assume, as I did, that a major demagogue would contest the presidency in the next century. I figured that the catastrophic consequences of planetary warming would all but ensure the necessary conditions for such a leader, and I imagined their support coming from a movement motivated by ethnonationalism, economic stagnation, and hatred of immigrants and refugees. I pictured, in other words, something not so far from Trump 2016.

I just assumed it wouldn’t pop up until 2040.

This kind of worry is speculative—very speculative—but it is not ungrounded. ...

This stuff is important because we need to understanding what's going with them.  I believe it's helpful to appreciate that the faith-based right-wing crowd is being brainwashed to blame other people for all their woes.  As their woes increase their fears, rage and need for scapegoats is also increased.  They don't have any time or interest in rational discussions.  Well at least not until the dust settles, if then.

What will that look like?  People will surely survive much longer than today's global social networks.  Younger folks who intend to live their full life spans will need to prepare on two fronts.  The social front of networking with like minded, dealing with or hiding from others.  The physical front of dealing with what Earth's transitioning climate tosses at us.  The latter will probably be easier to deal with than the former.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/dec/04/italian-referendum-and-austrian-presidential-election-live

Alexander Van der Bellen: who is Austria's new president?

So who is the new Austrian president? Alexander Van der Bellen is a tall, austere 72-year-old retired economics professor, a Green MP for 18 years before leaving parliament in 2012 to become a popular Vienna city councillor. 

Van der Bellen’s father was born in Russia to a family descended from Dutch immigrants. His mother was born in Estonia, from where both fled when the Red Army invaded in 1940, moving first to Germany and eventually settling in Austria.

Viewed by many conservatives as too leftwing, and by more militant Greens as not radical enough, Van der Bellen spent the early part of his political career in the Social Democrats. 

He campaigned on an unashamedly pro-European platform, arguing that Austria’s economic growth depended on it and saying this evening: 
"From the beginning, I fought and argued for a pro-European Austria. I would think it a big mistake to promote the drifting apart of the EU." ...

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I don’t mean answers about FBI Director Comey's election manipulating Clinton Email announcements.  Clinton totally failed in preparing for that inevitability, and she was never capable of putting that contrived scandal into understandable perspective.  Her failing.  Our loss.

That’s chump change next to demanding that FBI Director Comey explain why he covered up, dismissed and basically hid Trump’s extensive foreign business entanglements with governments that I’ve always known to be USA’s proclaimed enemies.  I’ve been writing letters and trying to agitate interest in the Dworkin Report which details some of Trump’s entangles and petitions the Democratic Party to show some interest.  Make no mistake, this is of national security interest and if Democrats don’t make a stand now, the Alt-right will steamroller us these next four years.

One of my emails went to DNC chairperson Donna Brazile and I was surprised to receive a prompt personal response.  I felt she ignored what I’d emailed about and responded.  We wound up exchanging a couple emails and then my phone rang with a Washington DC number.

 The lady at the other end introduced herself and asked if I recognized her voice and if I understand who I was speaking with, “Yes ma’am, I do.” 

It appears our email exchange caught her interest because although I was heaping scorn, she noticed the thoughtful thread running through my missive, which sadly appears to have been a singular exception in the deluge of anger she’s currently receiving.

I think she reached out because of curiosity, respect for my forwardness and to voice her support and encouragement for this effort.  I suspect she also wanted to do a little venting of her own, which was alright considering what she's been going through.  She made some excellent points to ponder.  

She asked me if I’d been contacting my Senator and Representative, or how many letters to the editor I’d written before the election?  She pointed out that a couple months back while the DNC was doing its best to investigate the Russian computer hacks, where were the Democratic Senators and Representatives voicing concern and demanding answers and that more be done by the FBI and others?

Where was the concern and attention of our news media?  Where were concerned Democratic voters and other citizens when the DNC needed their encouragement and prodding and support? 

That’s how democracy works, only if you are putting pressure on your Representatives can you hope for action!  That’s the lesson the Alt-right has been perfecting under our noses for a couple decades now. Will this experience help us learn?

She helped remind me that she was doing one limited job in an enormous enterprise that needed mutual cooperation and support.  She helped remind me how much public grassroots interest and pressure matters.  

Democracy demands that We The People get involved.  All those people complaining about how the Democrats let us down, should also do a personal audit.  I’m not saying take the DNC off the hook, I’m saying keep it real, don’t give yourself a free pass.  

As they used to say in my younger days: “If you aren’t part of the solution you are part of the problem”  and “Democracy use it or lose it.”

Donna also took a moment to share some of her background.  After the call I visited Wiki to learn more.  Her public service record is impressive.  Before tossing brickbats at her, why not go and see how you’d measure up next to her record.  Then remember there’s plenty of blame to go around, all of us dropped the ball on this one.

That doesn't mean letting anyone off the hook, it means everyone accepting their due share of blame.  But, even more importantly, we need to examine and learn from all we failed to see and react to.  Then we have a chance of moving forward in a constructive collective effort.

Without massive public support, direction and prodding nothing will happen within the DNC and our way of life will get steamrollered by the angry, passionate, ruthless Alt-right.

We get the Democracy we deserve.  All you colored and whites, rationalists, liberals, progressives, greens, humanists, LGBTQs, and such - it’s your move.  

The perfect democracy some feel entitled to never was.  Now our system is going to get a lot tougher, perhaps even hostile and ugly thanks to our collective failure.  But it’s what we have.  If we want to participate in the real world, we need to be pragmatic, even if your dreams want better, this is the political system we need to be learning about, if we want to win at it.  

Might I suggest the Dworkin Affair is a good, if not necessary, place to start.  NOW!!!  Before the Electoral College meets!  Write letters demanding an investigation into Director Comey’s coverup and demand we learn the full extent of Trump’s extensive business entanglements in Russia and China, both having government controlled business.  It won’t do a bit of good unless there is deluge of feedback.  Before the Electoral College meets December 19th.  It won’t turn back the results, but it will put Trump on notice, we are watching.  Now that would be something worthing marching in the streets for.

Find out more:

FBI Director Comey, the Dworkin Report, Hiding Trump's Cozy Russian Relationships

http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2016/11/trump-russian-obligate-as-president.html

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Democratic National Committee's dereliction of duty, will they ever learn

http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2016/11/democratic-national-committee-rolling.html

________________________________________

It would be grand if anyone cared to post that anywhere.

Cheers, Peter

What if the evidence is overwhelming that Trump has repeatedly lied about the extent of his connects with Russian?  Is there any expectation of honesty for an America President?  Will the Democratic Party leaders muster the courage to scream bloody murder about this before the man is actually elected (Electoral College).  I think every concerned America should make a big stink about this.  This is where public protests and specific demands might have a constructive place - as opposed to the post election temper tantrums we saw in some cities.

Can you pass it along?  The more people hear about this, who knows this disaster might be avoidable.

The Dworkin Report: Evidence Tying Donald Trump To Russia

http://occupydemocrats.com/2016/11/11/obama-now-looking-trumps-ties-russia-fbi-ignored/

By

Scott J. Dworkin Co-Founder & Senior Advisor The Democratic Coalition

November 10, 2016

To:  President Barack Obama, Vice President Joseph Biden, Senator Harry Reid, Senator Dianne Feinstein, Senator Patrick Leahy, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Congressman Keith Ellison

By:  Scott Dworkin

Re:  Ties Between President-elect Trump and Russia, Contrary to FBI Conclusion Date:  November 10, 2016

Dear Mr. President and Democratic Leadership-

Over the past few months the Democratic Coalition has taken extraordinary measures to disseminate the following information to the American public regarding the relationship between President-elect Donald Trump and Russia.

It is incumbent upon myself and our coalition to ensure that you are made fully aware of the ten pieces of evidence that follow. This evidence calls into question the recent conclusion made by the FBI, which stated that there was no clear connection between President-elect Trump and Russia to be found. As you will see, there are many pieces of clear, direct connections between the President-elect, Vladimir Putin, and the country of Russia.

Please note that this is the limited evidence that we have gathered to date, and is by no means a comprehensive report on the President-elect’s relationship with the country.

In solidarity, Scott J. Dworkin

_______________________________________________________

Exhibit Index

Exhibit 1

President-elect Trump on his travels to Moscow in 1987 (page 3)

Exhibit 2

President-elect Trump commissioned a $40 million statue by a Russian artist (page 4)

Exhibit 3

Trumps eye expansion into Russian market, according to Hotels Investment Outlook (page 5)

Exhibit 4

Trump Vodka and the Russian market (page 6)

Exhibit 5

Dr. Mikhail B. Piotrovsky, President-elect Trump and Vladimir Putin (page 8)

Exhibit 6

Donald Trump, Jr. interview in Riga, Latvia speaking about the Russian market (page 10)

Exhibit 7

President-elect Donald Trump discusses his relationship with Putin in an MSNBC interview with Thomas Roberts

(page 11)

Exhibit 8

Miss Universe 2013 in Moscow, Russia and the Crocus Group (page 12)

Exhibit 9

President-elect Trump’s advisor at dinner with Putin in 2015 (page 13)

Exhibit 10

249 business registered in Russia with Trump (Трамп) in the name (page 14)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-eFTtx9hvN2mxjcPyBNZNsphkSri16rEjpTDLq3C0WU/edit#gid=0

Maybe it was because he was in Tasmania and somewhat out of things. Or perhaps he was so intent on the political point he was about to make that he didn’t think the situation through.

For whatever reason, Malcolm Turnbull’s comments on the South Australian weather and power crisis at his Thursday news conference were notable for what they didn’t say.

Normally leaders drip sympathy for those affected by natural disasters. Turnbull paid tribute to the emergency services workers and those restoring power. But at no point did the Prime Minister express solidarity with ordinary South Australians. He was just anxious to get onto his argument about renewables.

The federal government has a new slogan. “We must keep the lights on.”

Indeed. First, however, let’s be clear why, according to what the experts say, the South Australian lights went off in such spectacular fashion. A massive storm tore out towers and brought down lines; lightning hit a power station. There was a “cascading failure” through the system, which shut down in self-protection.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) says the reason for the “cascading failure” of the network is still to be identified. But it declares the mix between renewables and non-renewables was not a factor.

Government officials have acknowledged that Australia’s 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reductions pledged at Paris in 2015 were made without any modelling to show whether existing policies could achieve those targets.

They also admitted the government did not have any modelling revealing when Australia’s emissions would peak.

The admissions, made in a parliamentary committee under questioning from Labor Senator for New South Wales Jenny McAllister, fly in the face of advice from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, telling the government it had “existing legislation, policies and measures to enable it to achieve” the the reductions.

They also follow a string of independent modelling exercises showing current policies will not achieve the emissions reductions committed to in Paris. Last week energy advisory firm RepuTex released modelling showing Australia’s emissions wouldn’t fall much at all between now and 2030, under current policies.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has found that the sudden and unexpected loss of half of South Australia's wind power in the midst of the severe storm on September 28 was a key event in the state-wide blackout.

The operator's update on the outage shows it expected all generators should have been able to ride through the transmission faults caused by the storm.

"Nine wind farms exhibited unexpected power reduction during the six voltage disturbances on the transmission system," AMEO's report said.

The size of voltage dips observed by SA wind turbines online at the time of the event was sufficient for ten of the thirteen wind farms online to activate their fault ride-through mode. Depending on the wind farm, this mode of turbine operation was activated between three and six times, as shown in Table 4.

Of the 13 wind farms on line prior to the event, four remained in service: Canunda, Lake Bonney 1, Lake Bonney 2 & 3, and Waterloo. Of these, only one (Waterloo) initiated ride-through mode multiple times, but it remained in service because it was set to a limit of more than six ride-through events.

But the report also points to two other major problems.

The first is that fossil fuels are not a panacea as some would wish. The diesel and gas generators paid handsomely to provide black start services to the state both failed, one within 15 seconds, causing the blackout to last much longer than it would have done otherwise. AEMO refuses to name the failed generators, citing “confidentiality” agreements.

The three diesel generators that should have provided power to Port Lincoln also failed – two tripped almost immediately and the third had to be shut down.

And, as the report also notes, this is not the first time that the Heywood interconnector has been separated from the state. Three of the previous disconnections occurred when the main coal generator, the now closed Northern brown coal power station, tripped and caused the system to collapse. The other occurred when bushfires in Victoria caused multiple transmission line failures.

BP has announced it will not progress with plans for exploration drilling in the Great Australian Bight, offshore South Australia.
In a statement, BP said it had determined the project would not be able to compete for capital investment with other upstream opportunities in its global portfolio in the foreseeable future.
The company said it would instead focus on projects it can exploit in the short-to-medium term.

It was the then Labor Minister, Martin Ferguson, who brokered the deal with BP, while the rest of the Labor Government was bringing in a carbon pricing scheme. A very shameful episode that should never have happened.

The Great Australian Bight needs to be protected against drilling permanently - I don't know who will do that.

About 13,000 properties remain without power in Perth and Western Australia's south-west after damaging winds brought down trees and debris, with a severe weather warning still in place for a large part of the state.

Western Power said crews had managed to restore electricity supplies to 9,000 customers who were blacked out in the storm.

However approximately 10,000 properties are still without power in the south-west of the state, mainly in Collie, Donnybrook, Albany and Denmark.

More than 3,000 properties in Perth also remain blacked out, with Nollamara among the worst-affected suburbs and Balcatta having been hit earlier.

Key Findings:

• The potential carbon emissions from the oil, gas, and coal in the world’s currently operating fields and mines would take us beyond 2°C of warming.
• The reserves in currently operating oil and gas fields alone, even with no coal, would take the world beyond 1.5°C.

Key Recommendations:

• No new fossil fuel extraction or transportation infrastructure should be built, and governments should grant no new permits for them.
• Some fields and mines – primarily in rich countries – should be closed before fully exploiting their resources, and financial support should be provided for non-carbon development in poorer countries.

The key recommendations are perfectly logical, if anyone who signed up to the Paris deal actually meant what they said. There's no weasel room left.

Any politician who claims to take the Paris accord seriously has to admit that no further development of fossil fuel reserves is permissible.

Done deal. End of.